Rystad Energy: Japan Could Achieve Energy Independence by 2060

Rystad Energy CEO Jarand Rystad has stated that Japan could achieve energy independence by 2060 through the expansion of solar and wind power along with storage batteries. Currently, Japan imports most of its energy resources, relying heavily on the Middle East, Australia, and the United States. The government’s strategy aims to reduce the share of LNG and coal in the power generation mix to under 40% by 2030 from more than 60% today. However, analysts indicate that Japan is progressing slower than necessary to meet these goals.

Rystad Energy: Japan Could Achieve Energy Independence by 2060
Rystad Energy: Japan Could Achieve Energy Independence by 2060

Rystad Energy CEO Jarand Rystad has stated that Japan could achieve energy independence by 2060 through the expansion of solar and wind power along with storage batteries. Currently, Japan imports most of its energy resources, relying heavily on the Middle East, Australia, and the United States. The government’s strategy aims to reduce the share of LNG and coal in the power generation mix to under 40% by 2030 from more than 60% today. However, analysts indicate that Japan is progressing slower than necessary to meet these goals.

Rystad emphasized, "Japan's mindset is that we have to import energy because we have no energy ourselves. But with the development in renewable energy technologies, I think that statement doesn't need to be true." According to Rystad, Japan could achieve energy self-sufficiency by integrating 45% solar power, 30% wind energy predominantly from offshore farms, 5% hydropower, another 5% from biomass and e-fuels, with nuclear power contributing the remaining 15% by 2060.

Rystad highlighted the importance of maintaining the solar installation momentum seen before 2020. "All Japan needs is to continue installing as much solar as it did in the years before 2020. From 2014, you installed between 10 and 12 gigawatts on the peak," he said. Last year, Japan installed approximately 4 gigawatts of new solar capacity, bringing its total solar capacity to 87 gigawatts, making it the third largest in the world behind China and the United States.

Rystad suggested that innovative solutions such as combining agriculture with solar panels, which can provide the shade preferred by some crops, and installing solar rooftops above roads, could further enhance the utilization of solar power. "The combination of offshore and onshore wind and solar, geothermal and biomass with solid backup from both battery and pumped hydro, should actually enable Japan to see self-dependency in energy in 40 years, or by 2060 even," he noted.

Achieving energy independence would significantly enhance Japan's energy security and reduce its reliance on imports. This development is seen as a critical step both economically and environmentally. The projections by Rystad Energy underscore the importance of continuous advancements and expansions in renewable energy technologies. For Japan to meet these ambitious targets, substantial changes in the energy sector will be necessary, yet these changes are vital for ensuring the country's future energy security and sustainability.

The transition to renewable energy sources in Japan represents a profound shift in the nation's approach to energy production. The potential for solar, wind, geothermal, and biomass energies to provide a diversified and reliable energy mix offers a promising path forward. With strategic investments and policy support, Japan could indeed transform its energy landscape, aligning with global trends towards cleaner and more sustainable energy solutions. This transformation will not only meet domestic energy needs but also position Japan as a leader in renewable energy adoption on the global stage.